China’s economy中国经济

　　Headlines about China’s weak growth are somewhat misleading

　　有关中国经济增长疲软的新闻多少有些误导性

　　Slowness is in the eye of the beholder疲软，只是你认为而已

　　Jan 24th 2019|SHANGHAI

　　AMERICA’S PRESIDENT knows a catchy number when he sees one.Like much of the world’s media,Donald Trump tweeted this week that China’s growth in 2018 was its slowest in nearly three decades.This,he said,ought to compel it to make a“Real Deal”on trade with America.China’s growth of 6.6%last year was indeed the weakest since 1990,and the country does want to end the trade war.But a closer look at the data shows why its leaders are less panicked than Mr Trump might think.

　　catchy/ˈkætʃɪ/TEM8

　　ADJ If you describe a tune,name,or advertisement as catchy,you mean that it is attractive and easy to remember.(乐曲、名字、广告)引人注意的;容易记住的

　　compel/kəmˈpɛl/CET4 TEM4

　　V-T If a situation,a rule,or a person compels you to do something,they force you to do it.迫使

　　panic/ˈpænɪk/CET4 TEM4

　　N-VAR Panic is a very strong feeling of anxiety or fear that makes you act without thinking carefully.惊慌

　　当美国总统看到这一引人注意的数字时，他就开始洋洋得意了。与世界上许多媒体一样，唐纳德•特朗普本周也在twitter上发帖称，2018年中国的增长是近30年来最慢的。他说，这应该迫使中国就贸易问题与美国达成“真正的协议”。中国去年6.6%的经济增长确实是1990年以来最弱的，而且中国也确实希望结束贸易战。但仔细看看这些数据就会发现，为什么中国的领导人并没有特朗普想象的那么恐慌。

　　First,the sheer size of its economy means that China’s growth last year generated a record amount of new production.Nominal GDP increased by 8trn yuan($1.2trn),well above the 5.1trn yuan added in 2007,when it notched up 14.2%,its fastest growth in recent decades.The point is simple:China is now growing from a much larger base.But this was overlooked in the flurry of headlines about its slowdown.

　　generate/ˈdʒɛnəˌreɪt/CET4 TEM8

　　1.V-T To generate something means to cause it to begin and develop.造成

　　2.V-T To generate a form of energy or power means to produce it.产生(电等能量)

　　overlook/ˌəʊvəˈlʊk/CET4 TEM4

　　1.V-T If a building or window overlooks a place,you can see the place clearly from the building or window.俯瞰

　　2.V-T If you overlook a fact or problem,you do not notice it,or do not realize how important it is.忽视

　　flurry/ˈflʌrɪ/TEM8

　　1.N-COUNT A flurry of something such as activity or excitement is a short intense period of it.一段短暂的紧张期

　　2.N-COUNT A flurry of something such as snow is a small amount of it that suddenly appears for a short time and moves in a quick,swirling way.(雪等的)一阵

　　首先，中国经济的规模意味着，去年的增长创造了创纪录的新产量。名义GDP增长了8万亿元(1.2万亿美元)，远高于2007年的5.1万亿元，而当时中国的经济增长了14.2%，是近几十年来的最快增速。要点其实很简单：中国目前的增长基数要比往年大得多。但在有关中国经济放缓的大量新闻报道中，这一点却被忽视了。

　　【拓展理解】

　　名义GDP（Nominal GDP）也称货币GDP，是用生产物品和劳务的当年价格计算的全部最终产品的市场价值。名义GDP的变动可以有两种原因：一种是实际产量的变动，另一种是价格的变动。也就是说，名义GDP的变动既反映了实际产量变动的情况，又反映了价格变动的情况。

　　The changing nature of China’s growth also provides some cushioning from the trade war.American tariffs are starting to inflict pain:Chinese companies have reported a sharp drop in export orders.But for the broader economy,foreign sales matter less than they used to.Although the falling trade surplus lopped half a percentage point from the growth rate last year,domestic demand more than plugged the shortfall(see chart).Consumption accounted for three-quarters of the growth rate last year,the most since 2000.

　　cushioning/ˈkʊʃənɪŋ/

　　N-UNCOUNT Cushioning is something soft that protects an object when it hits something.起缓冲作用的物体

　　inflict/ɪnˈflɪkt/CET6 TEM8

　　V-T To inflict harm or damage on someone or something means to make them suffer it.使遭受(伤害或破坏等)

　　中国经济增长性质的变化也为贸易战提供了一些缓冲。美国的关税已经开始造成杀伤：中国企业抱怨出口订单大幅下降。但从广义经济学而言，海外销售的重要性已今不如昔。尽管贸易顺差的下降使去年的增长率下降了0.5个百分点，但中国的国内需求弥补了这一缺口(见图表)。中国去年国内消费占经济增长的四分之三，是2000年以来的最高水平。

　　【搭配与表达】

　　trade surplus

　　N-COUNT If a country has a trade surplus,it exports more than it imports.贸易顺差

　　&The country's trade surplus widened to 16.5 billion dollars.

　　这个国家的贸易顺差增加到了165亿美元。

　　【拓展理解】

　　什么是贸易顺差，贸易逆差与净出口？

　　净出口，或称贸易余额，是指一国在一定时间内的出口总值与其进口总值的差额。净出口为正值时，称为贸易黑字、贸易顺差、贸易盈余或出超。净出口为负值时，称为贸易赤字、贸易逆差或入超。

　　Finally,China has made modest progress towards cleaning up its financial system.The government had sought to rein in debt,which had soared over the past decade.Critics have observed that it has failed to bring about any real deleveraging,because debt-to-GDP levels have continued to creep up.But stabilisation,rather than outright deleveraging,was China’s real goal.It has had some success:the pace of debt accumulation has slowed sharply.In 2015 it took more than four yuan of new credit to generate each yuan of incremental GDP.In 2018 that multiple fell to 2.5,in line with China’s average over the past 15 years.

　　modest/ˈmɒdɪst/CET4 TEM4

　　ADJ A modest house or other building is not large or expensive.适度的

　　rein/reɪn/CET6 TEM8

　　1.N-PLURAL Reins are the thin leather straps attached around a horse's neck which are used to control the horse.缰绳

　　2.N-PLURAL Journalists sometimes use the expression the reins or the reins of power to refer to the control of a country or organization.执政;掌权

　　multiple/ˈmʌltɪpəl/CET4 TEM4

　　1.ADJ You use multiple to describe things that consist of many parts,involve many people,or have many uses.多部分的;涉及多人的;多功能的

　　2.N-COUNT If one number is a multiple of a smaller number,it can be exactly divided by that smaller number.倍数

　　最后，中国在清理金融系统方面也取得了一定进展。政府曾试图控制过去10年来飙升的债务。但批评人士也指出，由于债务占GDP的比例持续攀升，该计划并未能带来任何实质性的去杠杆化。但中国真正的目标是稳定，而不是彻底地去杠杆化。它取得了一些进展:债务积累的速度已大幅放缓。2015年，每增加1元GDP，就需要4元以上的新增信贷。2018年，这一数字降至2.5，与中国过去15年的平均水平持平。

　　【搭配与表达】

　　creep up

　　（数量、价格等）逐渐增长

　　&But does that mean I don't feel super young at heart--despite that my number in years continues to creep up?

　　但是，虽然我的年龄还在增长，难道那就意味着，心理上，我就不会觉得自己非常年轻了吗？

　　此外值得注意的是，creep in up on you意为“情不自禁爱上你”

　　financial system

　　财政体制，金融体系

　　是一种允许贷方，投资者和借款人之间进行资金交换的系统。金融系统在国家和全球层面运作。它们包括复杂的，密切相关的服务，市场和机构，旨在提供投资者和存款人之间的有效和定期联系。货币，信贷和金融被用作金融系统中的交换媒介。它们作为已知价值的媒介，可以交换商品和服务作为易货交易的替代品。

　　&This is the price society and the financial system pays for lessening risks and promoting stability.

　　这是社会和金融体系为降低风险、提升稳定性所付出的代价。

　　Alongside these positives,however,there were some worrying signs.Nominal growth has slowed significantly,from an annual rate of 11.2%in the third quarter of 2017 to 8.1%in the final quarter of last year.It will slow further this year as inflation decelerates.Since nominal growth is closely correlated with corporate revenue growth,companies could be in for a difficult year.

　　annual/ˈænjʊəl/CET4 TEM4

　　ADJ Annual events happen once every year.每年一次的

　　decelerate/diːˈsɛləˌreɪt/TEM8

　　V-I When a vehicle or machine decelerates or when someone in a vehicle decelerates,the speed of the vehicle or machine is reduced.减速

　　然而，除了这些积极因素，中国经济也有一些令人担忧的迹象：名义增长率大幅放缓，从2017年第三季度的11.2%降至去年第四季度的8.1%。随着通胀放缓，今年中国经济增速预计将会进一步放缓。由于名义增长与企业收入增长密切相关，企业可能将迎来艰难的一年。

　　【搭配与表达】

　　correlated with

　　与…相关，具有相关性

　　&The ending of a composition should be correlated with its beginning.

　　文章要前后照应。

　　As for consumption,this year looks less promising than last.Companies have started cutting back hiring and incomes are growing more slowly,weighing on consumer sentiment.The middle three quintiles of China’s population by income distribution saw earnings increase by only about 2%last year in real terms.Those of the richest quintile rose by 6.6%.Given that lower earners tend to spend more of their wages than the rich do,that is a poor basis for sustained growth in consumption.Sales of cars fell last year for the first time in more than two decades.Sales of mobile phones were also sluggish.

　　promising/ˈprɒmɪsɪŋ/CET4 TEM4

　　ADJ Someone or something that is promising seems likely to be very good or successful.有望成功的;前景很好的

　　sentiment/ˈsɛntɪmənt/CET6 TEM4

　　N-VAR A sentiment that people have is an attitude which is based on their thoughts and feelings.情绪

　　quintile/ˈkwɪntaɪl/

　　N an aspect of 72°between two heavenly bodies(两天体的)五分之一对座

　　sustain/səˈsteɪn/CET4 TEM4

　　V-T If you sustain something,you continue it or maintain it for a period of time.保持

　　sluggish/ˈslʌɡɪʃ/CET6+TEM4

　　ADJ You can describe something as sluggish if it moves,works,or reacts much slower than you would like or is normal.缓慢的;迟钝的

　　至于消费，今年的前景看起来则没有去年那么有希望。企业已开始裁员，收入增长也在放缓，给消费者的信心带来了压力。按收入分配计算，占中国人口五分之三的中产阶级去年实际收入仅增长了约2%，而占人口五分之一的最富有阶级则增长了6.6%。鉴于低收入者往往比富人花更多的工资和收入，这对于消费的持续增长来说是一个糟糕的数字。此外，去年中国汽车销量20多年来首次下滑，手机销售也不景气。

　　China has already pivoted towards more supportive economic policies.It has sped up spending on infrastructure,trimmed income taxes and relaxed some restraints on bank lending.This does not add up to a big stimulus package,but the direction is clear.If growth slows further,as seems likely,the government will move more boldly still.

　　pivot/ˈpɪvət/TEM8

　　1.N-COUNT The pivot in a situation is the most important thing that everything else is based on or arranged around.中心点

　　2.V-I If something or someone pivots,they balance or turn on a central point.绕支点运动

　　infrastructure/ˈɪnfrəˌstrʌktʃə/CET6+TEM8

　　N-VAR The infrastructure of a country,society,or organization consists of the basic facilities such as transportation,communications,power supplies,and buildings,which enable it to function.(国家、社会、组织赖以行使职能的)基础设施

　　中国已经将重心转向更具扶持性的经济政策。它加快了基础设施支出，削减了所得税，并放松了对银行放贷的一些限制。这不算一项重大的刺激计划，但方向是明确的：如果经济增长进一步放缓(这似乎是有可能的)，中国政府的行动将更加大胆。

　　【搭配与表达】

　　speed up

　　1.PHRASAL VERB-ERG加快(…的)速度

　　When something speeds up or when you speed it up,it moves or travels faster.

　　&You notice that your breathing has speeded up a bit...

　　你注意到自己的呼吸加快了一些。

　　2.PHRASAL VERB-ERG(使)(某一过程或活动)加快

　　When a process or activity speeds up or when something speeds it up,it happens at a faster rate.

　　&Job losses are speeding up...

　　失业趋势正在不断加快。

　　There is no doubt that China would like to persuade Mr Trump to roll back tariffs on Chinese goods,which would both help its exporters and boost market sentiment.Bilateral talks are grinding on ahead of a March 1st deadline.Chinese negotiators are working on an offer they hope will satisfy their American counterparts,combining pledges to buy more American goods with reforms to treat foreign companies more fairly.But if Mr Trump truly believes what he tweets about the Chinese economy,he is at risk of overestimating the strength of America’s hand.China wants a trade deal,certainly,but it is not desperate.

　　bilateral/baɪˈlætərəl/CET6+TEM4

　　ADJ Bilateral negotiations,meetings,or agreements,involve only the two groups or countries that are directly concerned.双边的

　　pledge/plɛdʒ/CET4 TEM4

　　1.N-COUNT When someone makes a pledge,they make a serious promise that they will do something.誓言

　　2.V-T When someone pledges to do something,they promise in a serious way to do it.When they pledge something,they promise to give it.保证(做某事);保证给予(某物)

　　desperate/ˈdɛspərɪt/CET4 TEM4

　　ADJ If you are desperate,you are in such a bad situation that you are willing to try anything to change it.不顾一切的

　　毫无疑问，中国希望说服特朗普降低对中国商品的关税，因为这既有利于中国出口商，也会提振市场人气。然而在3月1日的最后期限之前，中美双边的谈判估计仍将会艰难进行。中国谈判代表正在制定一项他们希望能让美国同行满意的提议，将购买更多美国商品的承诺与更加公平对待外国公司的改革措施结合起来。但如果特朗普真的相信其在twitter上发布的有关中国经济的言论，他就有可能会高估美国的实力。中国当然希望达成一项贸易协议，但他们并没有想象中那么地渴望。

　　【搭配与表达】

　　roll back

　　1.PHRASAL VERB逐渐减少;逐步结束

　　To roll back a change or the power of something means to gradually reduce it or end it.

　　&Environmentalists regard these moves as the government taking advantage of the national mood to roll back protective measures...

　　环保主义者认为这些是政府利用国民情绪来减少保护措施的举措。

　　2.PHRASAL VERB降低，削减（价格、税收、收益等）

　　To roll back prices,taxes,or benefits means to reduce them.

　　&One provision of the law was to roll back taxes to the 1975 level.

　　这部法律其中一项条款是将税收降低到1975年的水平。

　　grind on

　　PHRASAL VERB令人厌烦地继续下去

　　If you say that something grinds on,you disapprove of the fact that it continues to happen in the same way for a long time.

　　&Civil war in the Sudan has been grinding on for nine years.

　　苏丹内战已经持续了9年之久

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